9 August | 2011 | Subject Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
I do not mask the fact that I have in the past often looked up to Syria due to its rich history and centrality in the heartland of the Arab World let alone its seeming resistance to Israeli, Arab and non-Arab plots woven against it. But this sense of qualified albeit tacit admiration has been gradually and painstakingly replaced over the past five months by another state of angry despondency: after all, what would have passed for steadfast resistance in the past now qualifies as steadfast cruelty.
Following the military attacks against cities and towns like Homs, Hama, Deir el Zour, Idlib, Dara'a and many others, there are in my opinion three options still staring Syria blankly in the face at this ninth hour. The first option would involve the government continuing its wanton use of force in an effort to try and quell the citizens' revolt. The second one is that the opposition tires from the daily demonstrations and accepts to engage in dialogue that leads to limited political liberalisation, keeping the current leadership in place and thereby capitulating on one of its principal demands. The third option, however, would involve sustained confrontations that shatter the economy, send millions of Syrians into economic meltdown, and ultimately bring down the regime because cracks appear in one or more of the three key constituencies of the ruling authority - namely, the Alawite minority from which the regime draws disproportionate support and manpower, the security and military services or the mainstream business elites in the major towns such as Aleppo and Damascus.
However, as a recent report by International Crisis Group suggested, the Assad regime could have perhaps largely overcome the crisis if it had handled it differently from the start. Instead, the Syrian government, beholden as it has been to the intelligence and security elements, has been shooting itself in the foot with its inflated insistence on blaming the uprising on outside conspiracies, let alone its attempts to ramp up the brutality of its crackdown and inflame sectarian tensions - particularly between the majority Sunnis and all other communities. However, with the regime increasingly losing credibility with large numbers of its own people and the audible creaks in the economy, this appears like a cruel fight that will test the mettle of both sides. The question now is who blinks first or whether the status quo is sustainable.
In the midst of those three options lie many imponderables. The first in my estimation is whether the regular army will split beyond the few that have already done so - with influential officers drawing away from attacks against civilians. As the pressure on the Assad regime mounts, might there be more military defections the likes of which we witnessed in the town of Abulkamal in eastern Syria? Does the replacement of General Ali Habib by General Daoud Rajha as defence minister indicate divergences within the military central command over the military tactics of the regime let alone over the loyalties of Alawite different constituencies? Yet it is not the army that props up the regime; rather, it is the likes of Maher Assad's elite Fourth Republican Brigade let alone the seventeen intelligence and security agencies and their henchmen the likes of Hafez Makhlouf, head of General Security Directorate in Damascus or Dhu al-Himma Shalish, head of Presidential Security or Mohammed Dib Zaitoun, head of the Political Security Directorate. The second wild card is still the sectarian violence between Sunnis and the ruling Alawite minority as much as smaller communities - such as the various Christian confessions and perhaps even the hesitant Kurds - that could potentially lead to ethnic fights and pit Syrians against each other and so freeing up the regime to re-consolidate its position. The constant reassurances emitted by dissidents such as Radwan Ziadeh and Burhan Ghalyoun against such a scenario lend credence to this fear amongst opposition figures. Besides, it is also a fact that not all the smaller non-Sunni communities are necessarily pro-regime or anti-change. Even within the Alawite community, the likes of former political prisoners such as Aref Dalila or Louay Hussein are speaking out against the random massacres we witness every day. And as Fr Samir Khalil Samir, an Egyptian-born Jesuit priest and noted scholar on the Arab World, stated in a recent interview on Vatican News, "I have the impression that the protestors are so disillusioned that they will not stop. This is something that we have never seen - the more they are killing people, the more people are protesting."
There are a number of parties responsible - directly or indirectly - for the bloodletting across the country over the past weeks and months.
Overall, I believe that the whole series of 'Arab Spring' movements have proven over the past six months is that there is a firm resolve for citizenship rights, freedom, dignity and democracy within the Arab World that can no longer be quashed - even ruthlessly. But one cannot expect such a process to be linear or be achieved overnight. After all, the deliberate decades-long repression of the people by their leaders have meant that there are hardly any genuine political parties in most of these countries and no civil society institutions ready to take over either. As such, the more I observe those events in the whole MENA region, the more I realise that this is less of a seasonal 'Arab Spring' than it is an 'Arab Awakening' that will possibly play out over the next few years before it settles down. In fact, what started as a spring movement will most possibly live through many seasons and multiple years. After all, most Arabs are beginning to experience democracy for the first time. There are bound to be many painful birth pangs as well as mistakes on the political and economic fronts. But if the masses succeed in their vision, it is largely because they have stopped feeling powerless and are willing to challenge their rulers in order to regain their citizenship rights with all the dignity and liberties that such co-equal rights carry with them. Yassin El-Haj Saleh is himself a Syrian writer and thinker who was incarcerated in the Syrian infamous Tudmor jail during the 1980's and understands the better than many others the thinking of the Syrian inner elites. In an article in Dar al Hayat on 7th August, he explains that one overriding and principal reason why Syrians cannot fold back and are instead defying helicopters, canons and bullets is simply because they realise that the alternative is no longer available to them. If they were to stop their demonstrations, the authorities would arrest many of them and torture them in inhumane ways - as has often been done in the past.
"Sometimes decades pass and nothing happens, and then sometimes weeks pass and decades happen" is a saying attributed to Lenin that captures some of the tectonic shifts taking place in the MENA region today. But that statement by itself is facile. As the Russian revolutionary also soliloquised in December 1916, only two months before the outbreak of the Russian revolution, "The revolutionary movement grows extremely slowly and with difficulty." The following month, in January 1917, he also went on to add that, "We of the older generation may not live to see the decisive battles of this coming revolution."
Given the vicious bloodletting in Syria, the open war in Libya, the unending clashes in Yemen, the sectarian tensions in Bahrain, the ructions in Egypt and Tunisia and the silent fears as well as loud uncertainties in many other countries of the vast MENA region, it is clear that we are in for the long haul that goes well beyond the holy month of Ramadan this year.
A popular Arabic expression goes (transliterated): mann daqqa, douqqa! Roughly translated, it implies that those who beat others will also be beaten themselves. So today, I can only emphasise that Syria is a lesson on how motivated citizens can challenge governments that seem invincible. In a nutshell, when stripped from the veneer of political sophistry, those Arab men, women and children across the whole region are claiming - proudly, at times forcefully, and often with sacrifice - their long-overdue citizenship rights and fundamental freedoms. But given the dusky realities emerging from many corners, I am also wary against religious radicalism or fanaticism on the one hand, and military arrogance or political kleptocracy on the other, infiltrating those virginal movements and co-opting them only to impose new forms of dictatorships, totalitarian control, subjugation and discrimination.
Otherwise, and almost as a classic act of double jeopardy, we might again be witnessed to the wilful murder of the Arab human soul - in fact of any human soul.
© Dr Harry Hagopian | 2011 | 9 August